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This is cool...The Renminbi exchanges US dollar to revalue 131 basic point companies to rise now on third to rewrite the record

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The Renminbi exchanges US dollar to revalue 131 basic point companies to rise now on third to rewrite the record
2010/09/14□

New China finance and economics

6.7378! Today the Renminbi compares the preceding trading day to US dollar exchange rate middle rate to rise largely 131 basic points. In the market exclaimed in surprise the Renminbi middle rate rose when yesterday the broken 6.76 important passes, since the exchange rate middle rate has rewritten once more collects changes new high record.

Since this value not only again has created in 2005 the Renminbi to collect changes new high, has been the Chinese Central Bank starts since 1994 to issue the Renminbi to the US dollar middle rate maximum level. Meanwhile, the US the pressure which exerts to the Chinese exchange rate policy is also enlarging.



Since the Renminbi middle rate on third has rewritten continuously collects changes new high record

Demonstrated from the China foreign exchange trade center's most recent data that on September 14 the Renminbi to US dollar exchange rate middle rate newspaper 6.7378, compares the preceding trading day to rise 131 basic points. Since hence, the Renminbi was already continual to US dollar exchange rate middle rate three trading days to set the record collects changes new high record.

The People's Bank of China is authorized China foreign exchange trade center to announce, on September 14, 2010 between the bank foreign exchange market US dollar and so on currencies are 1 US dollar exchange the Renminbi 6.7378 Yuan to RMB rate's middle rate, 1 euro exchanges the Renminbi 8.6561 Yuan, 100 Japanese Yen exchange the Renminbi 8.0833 Yuan, 1 HK dollar exchanges the Renminbi 0.86735 Yuan, 1 pound exchanges the Renminbi 10.3634 Yuan, the Renminbi 1 Yuan exchanges 0.45998 Ringgit.

Preceding trading day, Renminbi to US dollar exchange rate middle rate newspaper 6.7509.

Greece obtains the International Monetary Fund with European Union's second aid fund, makes the investor to worry the alleviation regarding the European debt crisis. This influence, euro bounce's at the same time US dollar falls largely, the Renminbi continues to US dollar exchange rate middle rate upward, to create new high again.

The US is sudden

In the near future the Renminbi rise possibly still the unappeasable The US government aspect to the RMB rate policy's accusation, particularly elected in November US intermediate stage is coming soon time. The American aspect accused the Chinese government artificial to reduce the RMB rate to help the domestic export enterprise.

6.7509! Yesterday's China foreign exchange trade center announcement's Renminbi let the market to US dollar middle rate be surprised once again, since the extension (on September 10) the situation, this value not only again has created in 2005 the Renminbi to collect last Friday changes new high, has been the Chinese Central Bank starts since 1994 to issue the Renminbi to the US dollar middle rate maximum level. Meanwhile, the US the pressure which exerts to the Chinese exchange rate policy is also enlarging.

On third revalues 398 basic points

US dollar index long time is strong continuously at the same time, the Renminbi actually continuously on third is strong to US dollar middle rate, and the frequency brushes new high record.

Yesterday the Renminbi to US dollar middle rate hypothesis in 6.7509, this value not only compared preceding on to surface the boat 116 basic points, was new high record which refurbishing just set the record last Friday once again. Starts from last Thursday until now, the Renminbi to US dollar exchange rate continual three trading day revaluation, the accumulation has reached 398 basic points, the rise reaches 0.589%.

Renminbi to US dollar middle rate namely official approval Renminbi to US dollar exchange rate. Speaking of refers to a basket currency the RMB rate to form the mechanism, the relative US dollar index rises at the same time, the Renminbi exchanges US dollar exchange rate to decline.

Some transactions said that considered the near future will announce the data, the Chinese government aspect is also willing to let the Renminbi revaluation contain the input inflation, will avoid the overheated economy. The data demonstrated that in August the Chinese economy strong rise, the consumer price index (CPI) the rise sets the record of 22 month new high.

However East China area one foreign currency trading believed that the Renminbi climbs high continuously to US dollar middle rate, was only China to deal with the American pressure to melt the method temporarily, the Renminbi exchange rate itself still did not have the so fast revaluation power. An early market both sides quoted price difference was yesterday big, demonstrated that the market point of view was very discrete.



At the same time, the Renminbi finalizes the forward market to US dollar in the disembark without the capital also to have rises. 1 year time US dollar/Renminbi finalized without the capital forward drops to the Renminbi 6.6430/6.6490 Yuan from the last Friday closing Renminbi 6.6732/6.6782 Yuan, indicated that the Renminbi will accumulate in the future 12 months revalues 1.8%.

The external pressure increases steadily

Since Central Bank on June 19 has restarted collects changes, up to yesterday, Renminbi to US dollar middle rate revaluation scope approximately 1.13%. At that time China announced that the withdrawal implemented long time of 23 month reality to observe closely US dollar RMB rate mechanism, and pledged that will increase the Renminbi elasticity, promoted the Renminbi marketability reform.

However, the Renminbi rise possibly still the unappeasable The US government aspect to the RMB rate policy's accusation, particularly elected in the near future in November US intermediate stage is coming soon time. The American aspect accused the Chinese government artificial to reduce the RMB rate to help the domestic export enterprise.

Last Friday announced the economic data demonstrated that although, Chinese in August the trade surplus largely squeezed to 20,030,000,000 US dollars, but accounted for the proportion to US's trade surplus by July's 2/3 expansions to 90%, thus had the market public figure to guess, the United States Congress had the possibility request to legislate to punish the Chinese strict control RMB rate the procedure.

US Minister Gaertner accepted last Friday Wall Stree Journal interviewed when said that China progressed not in a big way in the permission Renminbi revaluation aspect. Last week earlier, White House high-ranking officials and so on US the State Economic Commission Director Summers also have held the discussion in Beijing and the Chinese country leader.

Gaertner on September 16 will also attend the American House of Representatives to raise funds the related RMB rate question public hearing which the committee holds.

Expects the bidirectional fluctuation small scale revaluation

Facing near future RMB rate trend, the foreign currency trading has lost the direction. The transaction said that the market turnover is relatively low, because the transaction and the enterprise avoid having massive US dollar or the Renminbi cash, waiting related Renminbi in the future trend clue.

The Dutch Group International indicated in Singapore's economist Prakash Sakpal that the Renminbi had just continued three days to US dollar great scope revaluation. Only the Renminbi middle rate continues to rise, only then may say that the Chinese government changes the permission Renminbi revaluation the policy.

However, looks like in businessmen are invited to open companies bank fund transaction department senior analyst Liu Dongliang, the Renminbi bidirectional fluctuation's tendency has been obvious,

Liu Dongliang believed that the Renminbi short-term trend will be decided by the trade surplus data, the domestic and foreign financial circumstances and so on. He believed that the Renminbi will also continue the bidirectional fluctuation small scale revaluation to US dollar exchange rate in the future the trend.


Renminbi, US's scapegoat?

On September 15, the American members of the house of representatives raise funds the committee to hold the public hearing once more on the RMB rate question. It is reported that this public hearing regarding China whether in the Renminbi does exchange in US dollar revaluation to make



The Renminbi does not revalue + the trade surplus = operation exchange rate?

On September 15, the American members of the house of representatives raise funds the committee to hold the public hearing once more on the RMB rate question. It is reported that this public hearing regarding China whether in the Renminbi does exchange in US dollar revaluation to make



In June, in July China's trade data demonstrated that the favorable balance expands continuously, since and has set the record of 18 months in July new high; Since simultaneously the American June's trade deficit accident has expanded to 21 months the maximum level, since to China trade deficit has been the expansion to October's, 2008 maximum level. Obviously, such trade data will become the US to take the RMB rate

However, Shanghai Social Science Institute finance Research center Assistant Director Pan Zheng Yan indicated:



Commissar Lu smiles the word:

The revaluation also looks at US dollar

Observes closely name US dollar significance not to be big, refers to US dollar more importantly to other principal currency trend

From collects changes restarts until now, the Renminbi exchanges US dollar exchange rate middle rate revaluation scope is 0.2%, the US believed that after China restarts collects changes the change not to be big. However, looks like in Sun Lijian, since this is precisely the Renminbi collects changes restarts the result which the RMB rate elasticity has strengthened,

The other day, the People's Bank of China studied the bureau issue report saying that because US dollar occupied the overwhelming superiority in RMB rate basket weight, the Renminbi exchanged the principal currency the revaluation rhythm and the scope besides is decided by own favorable balance of payments condition, still mainly will be decided by US dollar trend. If US dollar exchanges the euro to be strong, compared with before restarting collects changes, the Renminbi exchanges the euro revaluation scope will be smaller than US dollar exchanges the euro revaluation scope; Otherwise, if the euro exchanges US dollar to be strong, the Renminbi will exchange US dollar revaluation scope will also be smaller than the euro exchanges US dollar revaluation scope.

But this is also in the Chinese Central Bank on June 19 announced that restarts collects changes, after enhancement RMB rate elasticity, the RMB rate will refer to a basket currency to carry on the adjustment much the result, because this means that the Renminbi with includes US dollar any kind of principal currency trend possibly not completely consistent.




Again in improvement mechanism

Has not completed the structural adjustment in the Chinese economy in the situation, the Renminbi does not have the remarkable revaluation the space



Sun Lijian believed similarly that the RMB rate reform must control the good rhythm, the speed, completes economic structure reforming is carries on the RMB rate reform resolutely the precondition.



Commissar Lu indicated:



The Renminbi internationalization speeds up

Bridge between within the boundaries market and international market's of already built

Since this year, the Renminbi internationalization's progress promotes largely. Settles accounts the experiment site from the interstate trade Renminbi the promotion to "Hong Kong Renminbi Service Settlement Agreement" the sign, arrives again "about Foreign Renminbi Settlement Line And so on Between Three Kind of Organization Utilization Renminbi Investment bank Bond market Experiment site Related Matters concerned Notice" official drawing a charge, thus allows three kind of foreign organizations to invest between the China Bank the bond market. Obviously, the Renminbi internationalization's step presents the obvious acceleration situation.





SDR

The acceleration Renminbi internationalization advancement cannot be hotheaded, then compels the Renminbi to collect but actually changes the increased speed

However, regarding this, Sun Lijian believed that current is by no means the Renminbi joins the SDR system's time,

Sun Lijian expressed the anxiety quickly regarding the short-term Renminbi internationalization's speed, he also warned:

Commissar Lu indicated similarly:






Stock market: Interest on futures, revaluation: Two big anticipated gamble A market
Generally speaking, the interest on futures will aggravate to be listed interest burden, to intensify the market fund surface pressure, speaking of A market is the advantage spatial factor. But revalues can attract the international capital to flow on a large scale, also will promote the aviation, the papermaking and so on

CPI creates in again the year new high, the initiation interest on futures anticipated rapid elevation of temperature; Since the Renminbi has created continuously to US dollar exchange rate middle rate collects changes new high, the command revalues becomes once again discusses the topic hotly.

The interest on futures, the revaluation, looked that resembles is very far with the stock market, actually is really affecting the stock index and the stock price performance. In two big anticipated mutual gambling, in the near future this already A market which will shake frequently, or will welcome another the confusion.

Two big anticipated gamble A

On September 11, the State Statistical Bureau announces the macro economic data demonstrated that factor influences and so on food rise in price, in August the resident consumption price index (CPI) compared to the same period rises 3.5%, not only sets the record in the year new high, since has become 22 months the peaks.

The slight increase CPI data has heated up the market regarding interest on futures anticipation. But the State Statistical Bureau

Meanwhile, the Renminbi revaluation anticipated will also welcome the high tide in the near future. on 10th, Renminbi price by 6.7625 since to US dollar exchange rate middle rate, has set the record of the exchange rate to form the mechanism reform new high. But on 13th the first trading day, the Renminbi rises broken 6.76 this week to US dollar exchange rate middle rate, by 6.7509 rewrote new high record which the preceding trading day just set the record.

Generally speaking, the interest on futures will aggravate to be listed interest burden, to intensify the market fund surface pressure, speaking of A market is the advantage spatial factor. But revalues can attract the international capital to flow on a large scale, also will promote the aviation, the papermaking and so on

The synchronization elevates temperature in a big way two anticipated gambles in secret, the command shakes A market appears even more as deep as a well.

Revalues anticipated slightly occupies

Because the partial market public figure expected the weekend interest on futures has not appeared, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market on 13th the small scale opens high, and maintains the plate entire trend in initial one hour. Hereafter the stock index starts to shake upward, but the above objective is blocked once again before 2700 integer positions, the closing reports 2688.32 points, compares the preceding trading day to rise 0.94%. The Shenzhen Stock became refers to the increase scope to surpass 1%.

Under the different anticipated influence, formerly frequently the common onset and retreat's real estate and the financial insurance tectonic plate presented the poles apart the trend. The former increase scope is in the lead, the latter is in the increase scope announcement

From 13th in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market's trend, already might sneak a peek at two big anticipated gambling at the same day the forms, but revalues anticipated as if slightly occupies

In the financial crisis affects in the process which abates gradually, because US and Japan and Europe and so on main developed economy interest rate maintains a low position, the international arbitrage fund continues to emerge the emerging economy. Some data demonstrated that in 2009 the Asian capital net current enters amounts to 35,000,000,000 US dollars, in 2010 or surmounting last year.



Trades a space to look at the investment

Follows CPI to stay at a high level, continues

Meanwhile, A market actually will maintain the shake pattern in the near future under the multiple factor's combined actions. The above objective suffers setbacks repeatedly before 2700 integer positions, the body the bulk lots plans the community for the market mainstay to display blue not entirely as desired.

Many professionals suggested that under spatial bilateral intense gambling, A market trend not bright background, the investor might as well trades a space to look at the investment. In fact, many investment markets start to appear surpass A market the value of each contribution.

While

The debt city performance has also brought the bond fund market

But as the inland investor most familiar external market, Hong Kong Stock market will continue to be strong in the near future. Since up to 10th, in September the Hong Kong stock market market only has had a trading day to receive falls, the HSI 8 trading day accumulations rise over 3.5%. But believed from Mogensitanli predict that HSI hopeful on tries 26193 spots by the end of the year, this means that the final 4 month Hong Kong stock market's latent rise reaches as high as over 25%.

The fine solid fund management Limited company experts analyze believed that carries out the free trade policy, and does not have the foreign exchange control Hong Kong market, becomes


Industry: Four big profession medium and long-terms or profiting Renminbi revaluation

Since the Renminbi has changed new high again to US dollar middle rate obtaining foreign exchange, the Renminbi revaluation anticipated continues to elevate temperature. The professional pointed out that under the Renminbi revaluation's big background, the medium and long-term finance, the real estate, the aviation, the papermaking four big professions or will profit.

since 13th, the Renminbi has changed new high again to US dollar middle rate 6.7509 obtaining foreign exchange, the Renminbi revaluation anticipated continues to elevate temperature. The professional pointed out that under the Renminbi revaluation's big background, the medium and long-term finance, the real estate, the aviation, the papermaking four big professions or will profit.

German Nation Negotiable securities Research institute assistant manager hoists sails the expression, the Renminbi revaluation generally speaking benefits the good finance, the real estate, the papermaking related profession, but in the interest on futures hearsay cash's situation, the real estate stock had not presented a wave retaliatory nature bounce yesterday. A securities trader self-management person in charge also indicated that now the key also needs to look revalues whether can continue, the short-term looked that also with difficulty to the finance, the real estate produces affects greatly.

Anticipated surges upward in the domestic inflation, under the compactness monetary policy vivid background, the letter constructs throws the chief macroscopic analyst Wei hontran to point out that

But the East China Sea negotiable securities strategy analyst Dong peak indicated that the Renminbi revaluation will possibly constitute the advantage to the Renminbi valuation property quite high profession as well as the foreign currency debt quite big profession to be good, but because the near future will be the slow revaluation, estimated that the Renminbi revaluation will form the stimulation to the related profession short-term, will form the support and the advantage for a long time is good. And, the Renminbi service and the Renminbi property are financial industry main bodies and so on bank, will therefore profit from the Renminbi revaluation.

The Guang Fa negotiable securities pointed out that the currency revaluation will bring the domestic assets price the rise, the real estate will welcome the advantage to be good, but the present Chinese suppression real estate's dynamics does not reduce, therefore the Renminbi small scale revaluation will be weakened regarding the real estate profession's frontage promoter action. The short-term looked that the influence is not remarkable, was still for a long time good for the advantage.

But the aviation enterprise belongs to the model foreign exchange debt class profession, the Renminbi revaluation besides enables the Airline disposable to obtain the related remittance income, but also profits from the aviation gasoline imported price drop as well as leasing costs reduction. In addition, the Renminbi revaluation will cause the papermaking industry import cost to pelt, because in the papermaking enterprise, the wood-pulp will account for its production cost proportion approximately is 65% to 75%, but the Renminbi revaluation will reduce the wood-pulp and the scrap paper import cost


Livelihood of the people: The rising wages deals with the Renminbi revaluation pressure to be more effective

The related expert forecast that our country GDP speed-up in 2010 is 9.84%,2011 years is 9%, will not have the malignant bloating



It is known that the Chinese macro economic analysis and the estimate report, are our country Ministry of Education key topics, is also our country only use international standard mathematical model forecast that Chinese economy key research project, by Xiamen University macroeconomic study center and Singapore National University Lee Kuan Yew Community policy Institute cooperation research, what this issue since has been 2006 ninth estimate report.

According to the report person in charge, Professor Lee Kuan Yew community policy institute Chen Kang introduced that according to theirs predict that in 2010 Chinese G D P may grow 9.84%, but in 2011 possibly recedes 9%; This year the resident consumption price index (C PI) estimates is 2.68%, will drop next year slightly to 2.04%. This year and next year G D the P speed-up can maintain the top digit is steady, has the bloating possibility not to be big. The macroeconomic policy still should in the transformation economic development way, the adjustment economic structure aspect increase dynamics.

Singapore National University Professor Lee Kuan Yew Community policy Institute Chen Kang introduced that this forecast was different in the formerly place lies, first time the effect which possibly produced to some policy has carried on the simulation calculation. Is continuing to increase the investment to the macro economic drawing function aspect, the simulation calculation indicated that even if increases the release of currency into circulation, M 2 grow 20%, also can only make G D the P increased range to raise 0.84 percentage point. This indicated that investment drawing grows the effect will drop obviously, will cause the national economy disbursement structure unbalanced aspect to further intensify, the investment will occupy G the DP proportion to continue to rise, expends occupies G D the P proportion to continue to drop, the bloating risk will intensify, the extrusion will transform the economic development way the space. Therefore, must control G the DP impulsion, prevents

The report has simulated from 2003 to 2009 the period, the wages and the standard currency currency value rise 10% situations separately, confirmed that which way can solve the Renminbi revaluation pressure problem well. The result indicated that although raises the wage level and the standard currency revalues can reduce the foreign trade surplus, but the former is more advantageous than the latter to the promotion economic growth, exterior is more advantageous in reduces China's trade surplus to correct is not balanced, and can enhance the resident to expend the total amount obviously to occupy G D P the proportion.

Therefore, the union topic-based group proposed that the policy suggested: Not only this year and next year, moreover in


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