I Get By With Alittle Help From My Friends....
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I Get By With Alittle Help From My Friends....

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the collapse of the government in the Netherlands could put increasing pressure on Germany to abandon support for the periphery

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gente

gente


If you’re still trying to piece together the events of the last 48 hours this note from Nomura might help. They describe how the collapse of the government in the Netherlands could put increasing pressure on Germany to abandon support for the periphery. A negative trend here is not far fetched at all. If Sarkozy loses his re-election campaign the core will likely see increasing support for those who don’t want to continue bailing out the periphery countries. I still think Germany will hold the line no matter what the costs, but the risks can’t be ignored as they grow. Anyhow, here’s the Nomura commentary:


“As we reflected in our 13 April report EU: Now is the second summer of our discontent – Act 2, the PvdA has also signalled that it does not support the eurozone’s fiscal compact, Dutch ratification of which is now, we believe, seriously in jeopardy. Although failure by the Netherlands alone to ratify would not in theory spell the compact’s demise – only 12 out of 17 eurozone members need to ratify for it to come into force – it would at best significantly damage the compact’s credibility and at worst encourage other members to follow suit.

Notable in this respect are Ireland, which has a referendum on it set for 31 May; and France, where the Socialist candidate for and favourite to win the ongoing presidential election, François Hollande, has already committed to try to renegotiate the compact (see ‘France: Plus ça change’, Nomura Euro Area Theme, 4 April 2012). Furthermore, a Socialist/left-of-centre win in France’s legislature elections in June could further complicate French approval of the compact; so, shades potentially of the fate of the European constitution in 2005, which was rejected by both France and the Netherlands and subsequently abandoned.

With the compact under threat, in Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel’s domestic challenges surrounding the eurozone crisis are likely to become still more complicated.

Again as we suggested in our 13 April report, she may find herself coming under increasing pressure at home to draw a line under further support for the struggling peripherals should they need it, potentially opening the door to a disorderly default on debt repayments and related eurozone exit.”





gente

gente

Dutch government collapses over debt woes

By Toby Sterling, Associated PressUpdated 1d 1h ago Comments THE HAGUE,



Netherlands – The Dutch government, one of the most vocal critics of European countries failing to rein in their budgets, quit Monday after failing to agree on a plan to bring its own deficit in line with EU rules.


By Peter Dejong, AP
Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte, center, leaves royal palace Huis ten Bosch after meeting with Dutch Queen Beatrix in The Hague, Netherlands, on April 23, 2012.
EnlargeCloseBy Peter Dejong, AP
Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte, center, leaves royal palace Huis ten Bosch after meeting with Dutch Queen Beatrix in The Hague, Netherlands, on April 23, 2012.
Sponsored LinksQueen Beatrix's office said she had accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his Cabinet after Rutte informed her talks on a new austerity package collapsed over the weekend.

Rutte is to debate with parliament Tuesday on whether and how his caretaker government can still improve the budget, and when to schedule new elections. No date was immediately announced, but opposition lawmakers called for a vote in late June.

STORY: Eurozone cuts deficits, total debt rises
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Opposition Labor Party leader Diederik Samsom accused Rutte of "dropping the ball at the worst possible moment" for the Dutch economy and demanded elections as early as practicable.

"We have to deliver clarity to the country as soon as possible," he said.

The Dutch government collapse came a day after the first round election victory of France's socialist candidate Francois Hollande, who has said he wants to focus less on austerity and more on economic growth.

The two developments call into question whether budget-cutting policies that are causing trauma in countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal can be enforced even in "core" European countries such as France — or in the Netherlands, one of the few along with Germany to maintain an AAA credit rating.

Rutte's hopes to clinch a deal to lower the deficit to within the EU's 3% target evaporated Saturday when his most important political ally, populist euroskeptic Geert Wilders, cut off talks, saying a slavish adherence to European rules was foolish and would harm the Dutch economy.

It doesn't make sense "to suffer for the sake of the dictators in Brussels," Wilders said.

Many agree the target is too aggressive, including the government's own economic think tank the Central Plan Bureau. Others, such as Dutch Central Bank President Klaas Knot, say meeting it is vital to keep the country's financial reputation intact.

European Commissioner Neelie Kroes called Wilders a hypocrite, since the Netherlands itself, along with Germany, had been one of the loudest in demanding Brussels adopt the 3% deficit limit in the first place.

"Pointing to Brussels now is dumb, it's untrue, it's distracting, and it doesn't solve anything," said Kroes, who is a member of Rutte's free-market VVD party.

A spokesman for the German finance ministry said that despite the seemingly negative developments, approval for European austerity is actually "increasing."

"We should not now simply let ourselves be thrown off track by daily developments," Martin Kotthaus told reporters in Berlin.

He said Europe's recent reforms had been well-received at a weekend meeting of the International Monetary Fund.

"We certainly have a great many very difficult reforms, measures and times in front of us, but the road seems to be the right one," he said.

Netherlands Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said he will still submit an outline budget to Brussels by April 30, as mandated by European rules.

He said he was optimistic about working with opposition parties in Parliament on cost-cutting.

"We'll show the financial markets, in consultation with Parliament, that the Netherlands' decades-long budgetary discipline will remain," he told reporters.

Some opposition lawmakers say they are prepared to cooperate with Rutte on drawing up a 2013 budget.

However, Labor leader Samsom said EU norms are not sacred.

"As far as we are concerned, you don't have to reach 3% by 2013," he said.

Although the Netherlands has relatively low levels of national debt, its economy is in recession and it is expected to post a deficit of 4.6% in 2012.

The package Rutte had been negotiating with Wilders would have slashed foreign aid and hastened a planned increase in the retirement age to 66 from 65.

Wilders, who is publishing a book in the U.S. next week about his struggle against Islam, pulled support for the austerity plan abruptly on Saturday, saying it was too hard on the elderly.

Yields on Dutch bonds were up 0.11 of a percentage point higher than they were before the weekend. Netherlands government bonds are trading around 2.35% for 10-year debt, about 0.6 percentage points more than long-term German government bonds.

Ratings agency Fitch last week warned the Netherlands stands to lose its AAA credit rating depending on the outcome of the budget talks that failed Saturday.

Central Bank President Knot has predicted Dutch interest rates will increase by around a percentage point if the country's rating is cut, making budget reform vital.

Panhead

Panhead
Admin

remember Merkal initially was against Germany helping Spain and Greece....then she did an abrupt change...makes one wonder who's really pulling the proverbial strings here.....

good find Gente...

gente

gente

MORE:

The Dutch government has collapsed after failing to win coalition support for its austerity plans. Elections are set to be held in September and analysts say one of the EU’s strongest economies may bring the unified currency’s demise
Prime Minister Mark Rutte, a strong advocate of the Euro, has been trying to get the Parliament to adopt 14-16 billion euros worth of austerity cuts. The deficit slashing is aimed at getting the Dutch budget deficit under the three per cent of deficit to GDP limit established by the new EU fiscal pact.
Rutte was unable to win the support of the far-right Freedom Party, whose leader Geert Welders said his country should not fund the new European Stability Mechanism and, at the same time, be expected to implement Brussels’ budget deficit caps.
“We don't want to cut spending by 14 billion euros and at the same time transfer billions of euros to Brussels for the horrible ESM emergency fund and the weak Greeks,” Welders noted.
At the same time, the Dutch government’s austerity measures came under criticism from the leftist opposition Labor Party. Its leader Diederik Samsom admitted that the three per cent deficit limit existed, but stressed that the Netherlands did not have to comply “if there are exceptional circumstances in the economy.”
After failing to obtain the necessary support from coalition partners, Rutte, who is the leader of the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, tendered his resignation and said new elections were likely to be held in September, after the summer break. The now-acting premier is still hoping to obtain the support of minor opposition parties to pass his legislation.
Journalist Neil Clark believes the Dutch are largely angered with the fact with the EU fiscal pact that imposes deficit limits on its signatories.
“The people have had enough of austerity,” Clark told RT “Holland’s GDP growth in the ten years since it’s had the Euro has just been 1.5 per cent. And they’re now being told that because of this absolutely insane fiscal pact that was agreed upon last year. It will destroy the good life that the Dutch people have been used to over the years. And unsurprisingly the Dutch are saying, it’s enough.”
He also said leaving the Euro was now a possibility for the Netherlands.
“I think if Holland were to leave the Euro, and that’s not such a far-fetched idea now, as it might have appeared a few years ago, then it really is game over. Because Holland has been a strong ally of Germany in the drive towards the Euro and I think it would be an enormous blow.”
A number of Eurozone economies have adopted austerity measures to reduce their massive budget debts and deficits. These measures have not been met with much popular support especially in such crisis-hit countries such as Greece, Spain and Italy. The Dutch economy is in much better shape and the Moody’s agency maintains an AAA rating for the country’s economy, though it did consider the government crisis to be a “negative factor”.


Panhead

Panhead
Admin

found this on another forum....don't know if it's legit or not....

WOW! France FIRST To Leave Euro....Death Of Petrodollar NEAR..."Dollar Kill Switch"
Amazing interview with Jim Willie.

[link to www.trunews.com]

gente

gente

link doesn't work Pan...but I did see another article a week or so ago saying it would be France 1st....

gente

gente

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