This seems to be a source that prides itself in being at the top of global business intelligence. This is expressed by the $495 price tag they placed on the actual report. I give a link to the site, as well as the profile of the owner.
As you will notice in the summary it is mentioned that they expect the "Central Bank" to hold the dinar at the current rate for 5 more years.
http://www.businessmonitor.com/
http://www.linkedin.com/profile?view...rofile_popular
BMI provides data, analysis, ratings and forecasts on country risk and industry sectors for 170 markets. Our customers and clients comprise multinational companies, financial institutions, governments and academia across 140 countries, including 400 of the Global Fortune 500 companies.
Iraq Business Forecast Report Q1 2010
* Report price : $ 495
* Publication date : November 2009
Iraq Business Forecast Report Q1 2010
Report Summary
Iraq’s economic progress depends, above all, on raising oil production levels over the coming
years. As such, the recent deals that the government has struck with a number of international oil
companies for the development of some of Iraq’s largest oil fields are therefore highly significant.
The deals also bode well for Iraq’s second oil licensing round in December 2009, where the government
plans to auction off 10 oilfields. We see real GDP growth averaging 5.6% over the five-year
forecast period out to 2014. On the political front, January 2010’s parliamentary elections are
another milestone for post-Saddam Iraq. We see the splits that have emerged in the main Sunni
and Shi’a political groupings, and the fact that political parties are increasingly prepared to make
alliances across sectarian divides, as positive indicators for future stability.
The devastating bombings that hit Baghdad in October could hurt Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s
support ahead of January’s polls. This could open the door for the main rival to Maliki’s State of
Law coalition, the predominately Shi’a National Iraqi Alliance, to achieve electoral success. However,
no one coalition is likely to wield overarching power after the elections. This, in conjunction
with greater Sunni voter participation, could enhance political stability as lawmakers are forced to
compromise to achieve results. An unfortunate by-product is that the legislative process is likely
to remain sluggish, and the prospects for the quick passage of the long-delayed hydrocarbon law
are dim.
The recent oil deals and our expectations for more to follow over the coming quarters support our
relatively positive growth outlook over the next five years. So too has our improved outlook for the
price of oil. Having revised our oil price forecasts upwards, we now see the government’s fiscal
position as far more sustainable. We do still forecast fiscal shortfalls out to 2014, but they should
be manageable. Supported by healthy current account surpluses, we expect the central bank to
hold the dinar steady at around IQD1,170/US$ over the next five years.
The improvements in the security situation mean that Iraq is now an increasingly viable investment
destination, and Baghdad is keen to welcome in foreign businesses. However, investors
must be prepared for a myriad of challenges, including endemic corruption, poor infrastructure,
an unsophisticated financial services sector and Iraq’s cumbersome bureaucracy. Nonetheless,
Iraq is luring greater numbers of foreign companies, and not just into the oil sector. For example,
parliament recently approved an amendment to the country’s investment law, allowing foreigners
to own land for the purposes of housing projects. This change in legislation will improve the attractiveness
of the Iraqi market for overseas property developers.
As you will notice in the summary it is mentioned that they expect the "Central Bank" to hold the dinar at the current rate for 5 more years.
http://www.businessmonitor.com/
http://www.linkedin.com/profile?view...rofile_popular
BMI provides data, analysis, ratings and forecasts on country risk and industry sectors for 170 markets. Our customers and clients comprise multinational companies, financial institutions, governments and academia across 140 countries, including 400 of the Global Fortune 500 companies.
Iraq Business Forecast Report Q1 2010
* Report price : $ 495
* Publication date : November 2009
Iraq Business Forecast Report Q1 2010
Report Summary
Iraq’s economic progress depends, above all, on raising oil production levels over the coming
years. As such, the recent deals that the government has struck with a number of international oil
companies for the development of some of Iraq’s largest oil fields are therefore highly significant.
The deals also bode well for Iraq’s second oil licensing round in December 2009, where the government
plans to auction off 10 oilfields. We see real GDP growth averaging 5.6% over the five-year
forecast period out to 2014. On the political front, January 2010’s parliamentary elections are
another milestone for post-Saddam Iraq. We see the splits that have emerged in the main Sunni
and Shi’a political groupings, and the fact that political parties are increasingly prepared to make
alliances across sectarian divides, as positive indicators for future stability.
The devastating bombings that hit Baghdad in October could hurt Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s
support ahead of January’s polls. This could open the door for the main rival to Maliki’s State of
Law coalition, the predominately Shi’a National Iraqi Alliance, to achieve electoral success. However,
no one coalition is likely to wield overarching power after the elections. This, in conjunction
with greater Sunni voter participation, could enhance political stability as lawmakers are forced to
compromise to achieve results. An unfortunate by-product is that the legislative process is likely
to remain sluggish, and the prospects for the quick passage of the long-delayed hydrocarbon law
are dim.
The recent oil deals and our expectations for more to follow over the coming quarters support our
relatively positive growth outlook over the next five years. So too has our improved outlook for the
price of oil. Having revised our oil price forecasts upwards, we now see the government’s fiscal
position as far more sustainable. We do still forecast fiscal shortfalls out to 2014, but they should
be manageable. Supported by healthy current account surpluses, we expect the central bank to
hold the dinar steady at around IQD1,170/US$ over the next five years.
The improvements in the security situation mean that Iraq is now an increasingly viable investment
destination, and Baghdad is keen to welcome in foreign businesses. However, investors
must be prepared for a myriad of challenges, including endemic corruption, poor infrastructure,
an unsophisticated financial services sector and Iraq’s cumbersome bureaucracy. Nonetheless,
Iraq is luring greater numbers of foreign companies, and not just into the oil sector. For example,
parliament recently approved an amendment to the country’s investment law, allowing foreigners
to own land for the purposes of housing projects. This change in legislation will improve the attractiveness
of the Iraqi market for overseas property developers.
