THE GAME IS FINALLY OVER!!! All the currency around the global will start following:
China Says It Will Increase Yuan's Flexibility
By ANDREW BATSON
BEIJING—China's central bank moved Saturday to head off resurgent international criticism of its currency policies with a pledge to make its tightly-controlled exchange rate more flexible, a surprise announcement that was quickly welcomed by the U.S. and others even though the central bank also ruled out a big rise in the yuan.
The People's Bank of China statement, issued on its website, didn't announce any specific changes to the exchange-rate regime. But it was seen as a clear signal that China will let the yuan resume a gradual rise against the U.S. currency—possibly as soon as Monday—after nearly two years of being effectively pegged around 6.83 yuan per dollar. The move comes a week ahead of the Group of 20 summit at which China's exchange-rate policy was expected to be discussed.
"In view of the recent economic situation and financial market developments at home and abroad, and the balance of payments situation in China, the People's Bank of China has decided to proceed further with reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime and to enhance the renminbi exchange rate flexibility," the central bank said in the statement, referring to the Chinese currency by its official name.
China's government fixed the yuan against the dollar in mid-2008, when the global recession was intensifying, as part of several measures to stabilize its economy. But international reaction to the policy has grown increasingly negative in recent months, with many of China's trading partners saying the currency is undervalued and thus gives Chinese-made goods an unfair edge. By abandoning the much-criticized peg, China may be able to defuse a potential political crisis and aid the long-term prospects of its economy, officials and economists said.
"This marks beginning of a new era," said Li Daokui, an academic economist who sits on the central bank's monetary policy committee. The central bank's announcement means that the de-facto peg against the dollar has now ended, he said, which should reduce pressure on the currency.
How much China allows the yuan to actually appreciate won't be apparent until markets open on Monday, and is likely to depend on the government's assessment of how well the global economy is performing. With the debt crisis in Europe worrying Chinese officials, the movement may not be fast. "The basis for large-scale appreciation of the renminbi exchange rate does not exist," the central bank said in the English-language version of its statement.
China's announcement was timed just ahead of the summit of the G-20 next weekend in Toronto, where Chinese President Hu Jintao will meet U.S. President Barack Obama and the leaders of the world's other major economies. China wanted to avoid its currency policies from becoming a focus of international criticism at the summit, analysts say. Emerging markets like Brazil and India had become increasingly unhappy with the effects of China's pegged currency, and the U.S. political calendar was also starting to heat up.
"If they went to the G-20 with the message that it's none of your business, that was going to go over like a lead balloon, and lead to a very unpleasant meeting. This will lead to a much more pleasant G-20 meeting," said Patrick Chovanec, a business professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
The G-20 summit had emerged as an unofficial deadline for China to address international criticism of its currency policy after the U.S. Treasury in early April postponed publication of a report on exchange-rate issues. The plan then, U.S. officials say, was to create a window when China could change policy without seeming to do so because of outside pressure.
Chinese officials have consistently insisted that outside considerations play no role in their setting of currency policy. Vice foreign minister Cui Tiankai said on Friday that the yuan "is China's currency and this is not an issue the international community should discuss." Mr. Li, the central bank adviser, said the decision was not directly related to the G-20 summit and had not been forced on China.
But with the deadline of the G-20 meeting getting closer, some members of the U.S. Congress had begun to ramp up their public criticism of China. "If China does not act and the administration does not respond promptly thereafter, the Congress will act," Sander Levin, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said Wednesday at a hearing on Chinese trade policy.
And administration officials have been trying to draw China's attention to the worsening political dynamic in Washington, to encourage a move before the tensions over the currency start to poison a relationship both sides have worked hard to keep on an even keel. "I think the strength, the sentiment in the Congress on this is overwhelmingly strong," Mr. Geithner said at a Senate hearing earlier this month. "I think it's important that China understands that."
The prospect of an end to the peg had been flagged in March by central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, who said China would eventually return to its pre-crisis policy of managing the exchange rate against a basket of currencies. At the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in May, Chinese President Hu Jintao also repeated a pledge to continue reforms to the exchange-rate regime.
But many analysts felt the prospects for an early move on the currency had dimmed after the European debt crisis brought in financial markets and the prospect of weaker global growth. And China did not announce either a one-off appreciation of the currency or a widening of the yuan's daily trading band, measures that some economists had speculated would be included in any reform package. That may indicate that China's appetite for significant change in the currency is limited. As of last week, currency derivative markets were pricing in an appreciation of a little more than 1% against the U.S. dollar over the next 12 months.
On the other hand, China's consumer price inflation went over 3% in May for the first time in a year and a half, which may have increased the pressure on authorities to use a stronger currency to tame higher prices.
When China last followed what it called a managed float with reference to a basket of currencies, it resulted in a 21% gain against the dollar from 2005 to mid-2008, with the fastest appreciation coming in periods of high inflation.
But because of the strength of the dollar this year, China's peg has actually resulted in a sharp appreciation of the yuan against a basket of other currencies. The euro's recent plunge against the dollar means that its value has risen 15% this year against the currency of Europe, China's largest trading partner. So China can legitimately argue that its currency is already much stronger than it was just a few months ago.
"We are going back to something like what was in place from 2005-2007. There might be a less aggressive pace of appreciation than last time," said Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green. "They are obviously very cautious. They are worried about Europe, and the trade surplus is quite a bit lower."
—Aaron Back, Liu Li and Shen Hong contributed to this article.
China Says It Will Increase Yuan's Flexibility
By ANDREW BATSON
BEIJING—China's central bank moved Saturday to head off resurgent international criticism of its currency policies with a pledge to make its tightly-controlled exchange rate more flexible, a surprise announcement that was quickly welcomed by the U.S. and others even though the central bank also ruled out a big rise in the yuan.
The People's Bank of China statement, issued on its website, didn't announce any specific changes to the exchange-rate regime. But it was seen as a clear signal that China will let the yuan resume a gradual rise against the U.S. currency—possibly as soon as Monday—after nearly two years of being effectively pegged around 6.83 yuan per dollar. The move comes a week ahead of the Group of 20 summit at which China's exchange-rate policy was expected to be discussed.
"In view of the recent economic situation and financial market developments at home and abroad, and the balance of payments situation in China, the People's Bank of China has decided to proceed further with reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime and to enhance the renminbi exchange rate flexibility," the central bank said in the statement, referring to the Chinese currency by its official name.
China's government fixed the yuan against the dollar in mid-2008, when the global recession was intensifying, as part of several measures to stabilize its economy. But international reaction to the policy has grown increasingly negative in recent months, with many of China's trading partners saying the currency is undervalued and thus gives Chinese-made goods an unfair edge. By abandoning the much-criticized peg, China may be able to defuse a potential political crisis and aid the long-term prospects of its economy, officials and economists said.
"This marks beginning of a new era," said Li Daokui, an academic economist who sits on the central bank's monetary policy committee. The central bank's announcement means that the de-facto peg against the dollar has now ended, he said, which should reduce pressure on the currency.
How much China allows the yuan to actually appreciate won't be apparent until markets open on Monday, and is likely to depend on the government's assessment of how well the global economy is performing. With the debt crisis in Europe worrying Chinese officials, the movement may not be fast. "The basis for large-scale appreciation of the renminbi exchange rate does not exist," the central bank said in the English-language version of its statement.
China's announcement was timed just ahead of the summit of the G-20 next weekend in Toronto, where Chinese President Hu Jintao will meet U.S. President Barack Obama and the leaders of the world's other major economies. China wanted to avoid its currency policies from becoming a focus of international criticism at the summit, analysts say. Emerging markets like Brazil and India had become increasingly unhappy with the effects of China's pegged currency, and the U.S. political calendar was also starting to heat up.
"If they went to the G-20 with the message that it's none of your business, that was going to go over like a lead balloon, and lead to a very unpleasant meeting. This will lead to a much more pleasant G-20 meeting," said Patrick Chovanec, a business professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
The G-20 summit had emerged as an unofficial deadline for China to address international criticism of its currency policy after the U.S. Treasury in early April postponed publication of a report on exchange-rate issues. The plan then, U.S. officials say, was to create a window when China could change policy without seeming to do so because of outside pressure.
Chinese officials have consistently insisted that outside considerations play no role in their setting of currency policy. Vice foreign minister Cui Tiankai said on Friday that the yuan "is China's currency and this is not an issue the international community should discuss." Mr. Li, the central bank adviser, said the decision was not directly related to the G-20 summit and had not been forced on China.
But with the deadline of the G-20 meeting getting closer, some members of the U.S. Congress had begun to ramp up their public criticism of China. "If China does not act and the administration does not respond promptly thereafter, the Congress will act," Sander Levin, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said Wednesday at a hearing on Chinese trade policy.
And administration officials have been trying to draw China's attention to the worsening political dynamic in Washington, to encourage a move before the tensions over the currency start to poison a relationship both sides have worked hard to keep on an even keel. "I think the strength, the sentiment in the Congress on this is overwhelmingly strong," Mr. Geithner said at a Senate hearing earlier this month. "I think it's important that China understands that."
The prospect of an end to the peg had been flagged in March by central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, who said China would eventually return to its pre-crisis policy of managing the exchange rate against a basket of currencies. At the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in May, Chinese President Hu Jintao also repeated a pledge to continue reforms to the exchange-rate regime.
But many analysts felt the prospects for an early move on the currency had dimmed after the European debt crisis brought in financial markets and the prospect of weaker global growth. And China did not announce either a one-off appreciation of the currency or a widening of the yuan's daily trading band, measures that some economists had speculated would be included in any reform package. That may indicate that China's appetite for significant change in the currency is limited. As of last week, currency derivative markets were pricing in an appreciation of a little more than 1% against the U.S. dollar over the next 12 months.
On the other hand, China's consumer price inflation went over 3% in May for the first time in a year and a half, which may have increased the pressure on authorities to use a stronger currency to tame higher prices.
When China last followed what it called a managed float with reference to a basket of currencies, it resulted in a 21% gain against the dollar from 2005 to mid-2008, with the fastest appreciation coming in periods of high inflation.
But because of the strength of the dollar this year, China's peg has actually resulted in a sharp appreciation of the yuan against a basket of other currencies. The euro's recent plunge against the dollar means that its value has risen 15% this year against the currency of Europe, China's largest trading partner. So China can legitimately argue that its currency is already much stronger than it was just a few months ago.
"We are going back to something like what was in place from 2005-2007. There might be a less aggressive pace of appreciation than last time," said Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green. "They are obviously very cautious. They are worried about Europe, and the trade surplus is quite a bit lower."
—Aaron Back, Liu Li and Shen Hong contributed to this article.