This is an interesting analysis of the situation between Iraq and Syria as well as Maliki's possible motivations.
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2009/964/re2.htm
Iraqi accusations
Iraq's relations with Syria plunged to a new low this week, as Baghdad pressed for a UN tribunal to probe what it said were Damascus-based masterminds behind the recent Baghdad explosions, writes Salah Hemeid
Iraq has stepped up efforts to form an international tribunal to investigate and then try suspects responsible for carrying out last month's bombings in Baghdad that devastated the foreign and finance ministries and killed and wounded nearly 600 Iraqis.
The Iraqi request, made by Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki to the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, seems to be Iraq's latest attempt to fight the violence that has been engulfing the country, this time by enlisting the international community.
In a letter to Ban, Al-Maliki did not name suspects or implicate any foreign government, but he and other Iraqi officials have repeatedly accused Syria of sheltering Saddam Hussein loyalists, whom they blame for masterminding the attacks.
It is not yet clear if the UN will endorse the Iraqi request and set up a tribunal of the sort requested, but a spokesman for the world body said the request was expected to be distributed to the 15 members of the UN Security Council, who would then decide if they would open a debate on Iraq's request or take action.
Despite this lukewarm response, the Iraqi request has already triggered a furious row between Baghdad and Damascus, as the two Arab countries recalled their ambassadors in a serious setback to relations that had just begun to improve after years of animosity during the rule of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein. Syria has been reluctant to accept the regime change brought about in Iraq after the 2003 US- led invasion.
Iraq claims that two wanted members of Saddam's Baath Party who fled to Syria at the start of the 2003 war planned and financed the 19 August blasts. One of the Iraqis linked to the bombings is Mohamed Younis Al-Ahmed, a senior official in the Baath Party who is top of Iraq's most-wanted list. The other is Satam Farhan, a senior member of the party who had been blamed for organising armed cells in several Arab Sunni Iraqi provinces.
Al-Maliki has urged the world to take Iraq's grievances seriously and warned of grave consequences if Iraq's request goes unheeded. "The world should stand united against terrorism and crime. Those who embrace criminals should pay the price," he said. Other Iraqi officials and lawmakers have warned that Iraq might consider hosting Syrians who are opponents of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's regime and allow them to carry out cross- border activities, if the country's UN tribunal request is refused.
Syria, meanwhile, has rejected the Iraqi claims and demanded evidence of its involvement. Al-Assad himself has dismissed the allegations as "immoral" and politically motivated, ridiculing what he called Iraq's attempts to "internationalise" the dispute by calling for an international tribunal.
On Sunday, the Syrian state-owned newspaper Al-Thawra said Damascus would not hand over people it considered to be political refugees.
"Syria has never handed over people who have taken shelter from the threat of injustice, arbitrary acts and death," the newspaper said. It reminded Al-Maliki that Syria had refused to send dissidents back to Iraq when they lived there during Saddam's rule.
"They know what their fate would have been if Syria had done such things," said the paper, referring to Al-Maliki himself and current Iraqi President Jalal Talabani.
Nevertheless, relations between Iraq and Syria plummeted after the attacks and the diplomatic spat that followed, though Al-Maliki will also know that recalling ambassadors is a theatrical response that will do nothing to end the more than six years of violence in Iraq.
On Sunday, Al-Maliki reinforced his request for an international tribunal during a meeting with the United Nations special envoy to Iraq, Ad Melkert. The UN did not divulge details about the discussions but later, in what seems to be a show of force, Al-Maliki ordered extra troops to be dispatched to secure the 725km border with Syria to try to halt the cross-border flow of fighters and weapons that is helping to fuel the violence in Iraq.
This escalation prompted concerns from neighbouring Iran and Turkey, both of which enjoy good relations with both governments. However, the countries' foreign ministers, shuttling between the two capitals, failed to make any immediate breakthrough.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu acknowledged that "trust and goodwill" would be needed in order to resolve the dispute. For his part, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa also said that the standoff would be high on the agenda of Arab foreign ministers when they meet in Cairo on 9 September.
It is unclear, however, what Washington can or will do to tackle this new crisis, which, if unresolved, is widely expected to impact its exit strategy from Iraq. Under its security agreement with Iraq, the United States has pledged it will defend the country against both internal and external threats, and the present crisis will certainly be a challenge to this agreement.
On the other hand, the Iraqi-Syrian row could also hamper Washington's efforts to bring about a reconciliation with Syria, part of President Obama's Middle East policy to contain Iran and encourage Syria to cooperate in Lebanon, Iraq and Arab-Israeli peace efforts.
State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said the United States hoped that Iraq and Syria would pursue negotiations. "We believe that as a general principle diplomatic dialogue is the best way to address the concerns of both parties," he said, reflecting a low-key diplomatic response to the crisis.
The Iraqi prime minister's call for an international probe has also puzzled observers, who wonder about the real motives behind Al-Maliki's move. Some have suggested that this is another tactical move by the incumbent leader, who is hoping to hold onto his job after January's national elections in Iraq by touting the value of his leadership.
Others believe that by resorting to an international option he is trying to turn up the heat on Syria at a time when the latter country is already facing another confrontation with an international tribunal, this time investigating the 2005 assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri.
There is also a possibility that Al-Maliki is trying to torpedo US-led efforts, blessed by Syria, to reconcile former Iraqi Baathists with the Iraqi government and allow them to participate in the political process.
Regardless of his goals, Al-Maliki has proven to be a smart tactician by throwing the ball into the United Nations' court. As a result of several Security Council resolutions related to the US-led invasion, the UN is still responsible for Iraq's protection against foreign intervention.
Even if efforts to establish the tribunal do not bring fruit, the Iraqi move has alerted the world that without strong and concentrated action to stop foreign intervention in Iraq's internal affairs it will be hard to end the Iraqi quagmire.
This helps to explain why Syria has been so furious about the Iraqi allegations and its strong resistance to Iraq's effort to take the issue to the United Nations.
One of Al-Maliki's complaints is that Syrian intelligence agents are working closely with Iraqi Baathists, who run a network of fighters seeking to overthrow the Iraqi government. Confessions by such fighters aired on Iraqi television have said that they were trained in camps in Syria, and these have been pointed to by Al-Maliki as evidence of Syrian complicity.
It is something of an open secret that Syria is providing a safe haven for Iraqi Baathists and other opponents of the present Iraqi regime. However, if Iraq can prove to a UN tribunal that Syria is complicit in the activities of anti-Iraq militants it will be a huge embarrassment for the Al-Assad regime and a diplomatic coup for Al-Maliki.
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2009/964/re2.htm
Iraqi accusations
Iraq's relations with Syria plunged to a new low this week, as Baghdad pressed for a UN tribunal to probe what it said were Damascus-based masterminds behind the recent Baghdad explosions, writes Salah Hemeid
Iraq has stepped up efforts to form an international tribunal to investigate and then try suspects responsible for carrying out last month's bombings in Baghdad that devastated the foreign and finance ministries and killed and wounded nearly 600 Iraqis.
The Iraqi request, made by Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki to the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, seems to be Iraq's latest attempt to fight the violence that has been engulfing the country, this time by enlisting the international community.
In a letter to Ban, Al-Maliki did not name suspects or implicate any foreign government, but he and other Iraqi officials have repeatedly accused Syria of sheltering Saddam Hussein loyalists, whom they blame for masterminding the attacks.
It is not yet clear if the UN will endorse the Iraqi request and set up a tribunal of the sort requested, but a spokesman for the world body said the request was expected to be distributed to the 15 members of the UN Security Council, who would then decide if they would open a debate on Iraq's request or take action.
Despite this lukewarm response, the Iraqi request has already triggered a furious row between Baghdad and Damascus, as the two Arab countries recalled their ambassadors in a serious setback to relations that had just begun to improve after years of animosity during the rule of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein. Syria has been reluctant to accept the regime change brought about in Iraq after the 2003 US- led invasion.
Iraq claims that two wanted members of Saddam's Baath Party who fled to Syria at the start of the 2003 war planned and financed the 19 August blasts. One of the Iraqis linked to the bombings is Mohamed Younis Al-Ahmed, a senior official in the Baath Party who is top of Iraq's most-wanted list. The other is Satam Farhan, a senior member of the party who had been blamed for organising armed cells in several Arab Sunni Iraqi provinces.
Al-Maliki has urged the world to take Iraq's grievances seriously and warned of grave consequences if Iraq's request goes unheeded. "The world should stand united against terrorism and crime. Those who embrace criminals should pay the price," he said. Other Iraqi officials and lawmakers have warned that Iraq might consider hosting Syrians who are opponents of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's regime and allow them to carry out cross- border activities, if the country's UN tribunal request is refused.
Syria, meanwhile, has rejected the Iraqi claims and demanded evidence of its involvement. Al-Assad himself has dismissed the allegations as "immoral" and politically motivated, ridiculing what he called Iraq's attempts to "internationalise" the dispute by calling for an international tribunal.
On Sunday, the Syrian state-owned newspaper Al-Thawra said Damascus would not hand over people it considered to be political refugees.
"Syria has never handed over people who have taken shelter from the threat of injustice, arbitrary acts and death," the newspaper said. It reminded Al-Maliki that Syria had refused to send dissidents back to Iraq when they lived there during Saddam's rule.
"They know what their fate would have been if Syria had done such things," said the paper, referring to Al-Maliki himself and current Iraqi President Jalal Talabani.
Nevertheless, relations between Iraq and Syria plummeted after the attacks and the diplomatic spat that followed, though Al-Maliki will also know that recalling ambassadors is a theatrical response that will do nothing to end the more than six years of violence in Iraq.
On Sunday, Al-Maliki reinforced his request for an international tribunal during a meeting with the United Nations special envoy to Iraq, Ad Melkert. The UN did not divulge details about the discussions but later, in what seems to be a show of force, Al-Maliki ordered extra troops to be dispatched to secure the 725km border with Syria to try to halt the cross-border flow of fighters and weapons that is helping to fuel the violence in Iraq.
This escalation prompted concerns from neighbouring Iran and Turkey, both of which enjoy good relations with both governments. However, the countries' foreign ministers, shuttling between the two capitals, failed to make any immediate breakthrough.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu acknowledged that "trust and goodwill" would be needed in order to resolve the dispute. For his part, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa also said that the standoff would be high on the agenda of Arab foreign ministers when they meet in Cairo on 9 September.
It is unclear, however, what Washington can or will do to tackle this new crisis, which, if unresolved, is widely expected to impact its exit strategy from Iraq. Under its security agreement with Iraq, the United States has pledged it will defend the country against both internal and external threats, and the present crisis will certainly be a challenge to this agreement.
On the other hand, the Iraqi-Syrian row could also hamper Washington's efforts to bring about a reconciliation with Syria, part of President Obama's Middle East policy to contain Iran and encourage Syria to cooperate in Lebanon, Iraq and Arab-Israeli peace efforts.
State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said the United States hoped that Iraq and Syria would pursue negotiations. "We believe that as a general principle diplomatic dialogue is the best way to address the concerns of both parties," he said, reflecting a low-key diplomatic response to the crisis.
The Iraqi prime minister's call for an international probe has also puzzled observers, who wonder about the real motives behind Al-Maliki's move. Some have suggested that this is another tactical move by the incumbent leader, who is hoping to hold onto his job after January's national elections in Iraq by touting the value of his leadership.
Others believe that by resorting to an international option he is trying to turn up the heat on Syria at a time when the latter country is already facing another confrontation with an international tribunal, this time investigating the 2005 assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri.
There is also a possibility that Al-Maliki is trying to torpedo US-led efforts, blessed by Syria, to reconcile former Iraqi Baathists with the Iraqi government and allow them to participate in the political process.
Regardless of his goals, Al-Maliki has proven to be a smart tactician by throwing the ball into the United Nations' court. As a result of several Security Council resolutions related to the US-led invasion, the UN is still responsible for Iraq's protection against foreign intervention.
Even if efforts to establish the tribunal do not bring fruit, the Iraqi move has alerted the world that without strong and concentrated action to stop foreign intervention in Iraq's internal affairs it will be hard to end the Iraqi quagmire.
This helps to explain why Syria has been so furious about the Iraqi allegations and its strong resistance to Iraq's effort to take the issue to the United Nations.
One of Al-Maliki's complaints is that Syrian intelligence agents are working closely with Iraqi Baathists, who run a network of fighters seeking to overthrow the Iraqi government. Confessions by such fighters aired on Iraqi television have said that they were trained in camps in Syria, and these have been pointed to by Al-Maliki as evidence of Syrian complicity.
It is something of an open secret that Syria is providing a safe haven for Iraqi Baathists and other opponents of the present Iraqi regime. However, if Iraq can prove to a UN tribunal that Syria is complicit in the activities of anti-Iraq militants it will be a huge embarrassment for the Al-Assad regime and a diplomatic coup for Al-Maliki.