Currency report for July 26
Navendu Narain, July 26, 2010 (New Delhi)
Indian equities ended in the negative territory Monday as investors booked profits in rate sensitive sectors ahead of the RBI’s policy review meet. The 50-share NSE Nifty closed at 5418.60 with a loss of 30.50 points from Friday’s closing. Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex ended at 18020.05, down 110.93 points or 0.61 per cent. Global markets were mixed post the European stress tests results. Most of the market is fighting for next upside levels.
Since the currency market is by and large influenced by the happening of equity markets, it behaved in the same fashion on Monday. The volatility was missing at the EUR-USD counter as it is currently trading at 1.2910. But unlike the EUR-USD pair, the USD-JPY pair has given sufficient space for traders for their working. It is down since morning and is currently trading at 87.10 (16:28 PM IST). The USD Index is at 82.516 with red body candle.
At Indian currency future exchange, the most tradable pair USD-INR is up by 0.09 per cent and its last traded price was 47.0625. The most active July contract was down in first half of trading but it regained substantially in the second half and traded above last session’s closing price (46.97). Its negative correlation with stock index, Nifty, always gives first hand clue of its probable market direction. If Nifty closes in red then the USD-INR pair will close in green. The pair’s moving average cross over and 14 days Stochastic is showing bearish signal or appreciation in USD-INR pair further. It may, if follow above mentioned indicator, will come down to 46.53.
The euro-rupee pair is having the dearth of volatility. It traded in a very tight zone of 60.56-60.70. During the last hour of trading it registered its intraday high of 60.86 but failed to sustain there and came down to 60.83. On hourly chart it is in Buy mood while on Daily chart it is bearish. Mainly the EUR-INR price direction is guided by the EUR-USD pair and on Monday it was lacking the volatility.
The GBP-INR July month future opened at 72.55 on July 26 at Indian currency future counter. Although it came down till 72.34 in intraday session but recovered in the second half and is currently trading at 72.80 very close to Bollinger upper band. The 14-day stochastic cross over if holds good then it might go to 73-74 levels in near future. It has very strong support at 72.25. Positive news flow from the European markets and especially from the UK helped the pair to cover its earlier loss of previous few months.
The JPY-INR, a pair which is negatively correlated to USD-JPY witnessed highest volatility among all tradable pairs at currency future exchange. Ignoring the bearish signal by 14-day stochastic it recovered from its intraday low of 53.40 and crossed the hovering levels of 54. It closed at 54.04 for the day. The USD-JPY pair is again on free fall. So negatively JPY-INR pair depreciated erasing the earlier gains.
Global indices status: NIFTY 5418.60(-0.56 per cent) HANG SENG INDEX 20839.91 (+24.58 per cent) SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 2588.683(+0.65 per cent) NIKKEI 9503.66 (+0.77 per cent) FTSE 100 5309.92 (-0.05 per cent) CAC 40 3598.33 (-0.24 per cent)
Global currency market overview: $76 bn unwinded in carry trades at JPY platform which supported it to outperform in today’s market. European banks performed better than expected on stress tests , the tests were watered down to exclude 90 per cent of the banks sovereign debt holdings because they are on the banking side of the banks ledgers. Apart from this, markets are uncertain over the ability of banks to meet the borrowing needs of clients over the next two years to economy running.
Reference rate announced by RBI for global currency with respect to Rupee for July 26.
1USD-46.86, 1EUR-60.64, 100JPY- 53.59, 1GBP-72.5205
Navendu Narain, July 26, 2010 (New Delhi)
Indian equities ended in the negative territory Monday as investors booked profits in rate sensitive sectors ahead of the RBI’s policy review meet. The 50-share NSE Nifty closed at 5418.60 with a loss of 30.50 points from Friday’s closing. Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex ended at 18020.05, down 110.93 points or 0.61 per cent. Global markets were mixed post the European stress tests results. Most of the market is fighting for next upside levels.
Since the currency market is by and large influenced by the happening of equity markets, it behaved in the same fashion on Monday. The volatility was missing at the EUR-USD counter as it is currently trading at 1.2910. But unlike the EUR-USD pair, the USD-JPY pair has given sufficient space for traders for their working. It is down since morning and is currently trading at 87.10 (16:28 PM IST). The USD Index is at 82.516 with red body candle.
At Indian currency future exchange, the most tradable pair USD-INR is up by 0.09 per cent and its last traded price was 47.0625. The most active July contract was down in first half of trading but it regained substantially in the second half and traded above last session’s closing price (46.97). Its negative correlation with stock index, Nifty, always gives first hand clue of its probable market direction. If Nifty closes in red then the USD-INR pair will close in green. The pair’s moving average cross over and 14 days Stochastic is showing bearish signal or appreciation in USD-INR pair further. It may, if follow above mentioned indicator, will come down to 46.53.
The euro-rupee pair is having the dearth of volatility. It traded in a very tight zone of 60.56-60.70. During the last hour of trading it registered its intraday high of 60.86 but failed to sustain there and came down to 60.83. On hourly chart it is in Buy mood while on Daily chart it is bearish. Mainly the EUR-INR price direction is guided by the EUR-USD pair and on Monday it was lacking the volatility.
The GBP-INR July month future opened at 72.55 on July 26 at Indian currency future counter. Although it came down till 72.34 in intraday session but recovered in the second half and is currently trading at 72.80 very close to Bollinger upper band. The 14-day stochastic cross over if holds good then it might go to 73-74 levels in near future. It has very strong support at 72.25. Positive news flow from the European markets and especially from the UK helped the pair to cover its earlier loss of previous few months.
The JPY-INR, a pair which is negatively correlated to USD-JPY witnessed highest volatility among all tradable pairs at currency future exchange. Ignoring the bearish signal by 14-day stochastic it recovered from its intraday low of 53.40 and crossed the hovering levels of 54. It closed at 54.04 for the day. The USD-JPY pair is again on free fall. So negatively JPY-INR pair depreciated erasing the earlier gains.
Global indices status: NIFTY 5418.60(-0.56 per cent) HANG SENG INDEX 20839.91 (+24.58 per cent) SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 2588.683(+0.65 per cent) NIKKEI 9503.66 (+0.77 per cent) FTSE 100 5309.92 (-0.05 per cent) CAC 40 3598.33 (-0.24 per cent)
Global currency market overview: $76 bn unwinded in carry trades at JPY platform which supported it to outperform in today’s market. European banks performed better than expected on stress tests , the tests were watered down to exclude 90 per cent of the banks sovereign debt holdings because they are on the banking side of the banks ledgers. Apart from this, markets are uncertain over the ability of banks to meet the borrowing needs of clients over the next two years to economy running.
Reference rate announced by RBI for global currency with respect to Rupee for July 26.
1USD-46.86, 1EUR-60.64, 100JPY- 53.59, 1GBP-72.5205