This Is the Bank of Japan's Intervention Window (If It Really Wanted It)
by: Marc Chandler September 05, 2010 | about: EWJ / FXY
The market has been rightly skeptical of the efficacy of possible BOJ intervention. Part of the argument is that it would be fighting the tide and market forces. However, the better than expected US employment data has spurred a sharp drop in the yen. If Japanese officials really wanted to intervene, this would be the proverbial golden opportunity.
The fact that it won't intervene reflects two things. Japanese intervention style is typically about overwhemlming the market in size. This contrasts to the US traditional approach which is more about finesse than size-- catching the market wrong footed rather than beating it back. Secondly, Japanese officials are really at a loss and have little confidence.
On Friday, the dollar jumped to JPY85.20 to set a new high for the week and nick the 20-day moving average (~JPY85.10). It will take a move back above JPY86 to cause the yen bulls to re-think and this does not seem likely in the near-term.