* September 6, 2010, 11:04 AM HKT
Bumpy Months Ahead for U.S. and China
The visit of U.S. National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers and Deputy National Security Adviser Thomas Donilon that started Sunday kicks off a historically busy period of U.S.-China exchanges on which a lot is riding in the world’s most important bilateral relationship.
Summers and Donilon will be discussing a range of thorny issues — including U.S. frustration over China’s currency policy and Chinese anger over U.S. involvement in the South China Sea — with senior officials including Vice Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo, and probably Premier Wen Jiabao or President Hu Jintao, or both.
Then, in about two weeks, Wen travels to New York for a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, during which he’s also likely to have a bilateral sit-down with U.S. President Barack Obama. Then in the first week of November is the next round of the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, which will cover the gamut of bilateral trade issues.
About a week later is the G-20 Summit in Seoul, followed by the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Yokohama, Japan, both of which are likely to see additional meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials. Then, around January, Chinese President Hu is expected to go to Washington.
The flurry of meetings is “possibly more than any other exchanges in any five-month period” in the modern history of the relationship, says John Frisbie, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, who has been involved with China since the 1980s.
While much of that schedule was set long ago, the interaction couldn’t be better timed. U.S.-China relations are in one of their periodic phases of tension, with issues like the yuan’s exchange rate and the South China Sea threatening to snowball if not handled carefully.
Frisbie and others say there is serious frustration in Washington that China’s currency has barely budged since Beijing’s high-profile announcement in June that the exchange rate would be more flexible. That anger is likely to be on display during back-to-back hearings on the yuan in the House and Senate next week, and, undoubtedly, in the run-up to the U.S. midterm elections in November. “On currency, the risks of legislation are definitely rising,” says Frisbie.
Meanwhile, China’s government and media continue to stew over U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s decision to counter Chinese rhetoric on the South China Sea with a surprise statement at an Asean meeting in July that the region is part of U.S. “national interest.”
The move so shocked the Chinese delegation that Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, by multiple accounts, lost his temper and lashed out at representatives of other Asean members, including Vietnam, which was hosting the meeting.
All of that’s not to mention Iran, North Korea, trade, climate change and indigenous innovation, among other less-than-simple issues weighing on U.S.-China ties these days. Whatever happens, it’s fair to guess that diplomats in Washington and Beijing won’t be having a restful five months.