Middle East, North African Economies Will Accelerate Next Year, IMF Says
By Alaa Shahine - Oct 24, 2010 12:00 AM CT
Growth in Middle Eastern and North African oil-exporting economies will accelerate next year as crude production rises, the International Monetary Fund said.
Gross domestic product in those countries will expand 5 percent in 2011 after growing 3.8 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2009, the Washington-based lender said in its regional Economic Outlook released today in Dubai.
Those forecasts put oil exporters on course to grow faster than most of the world’s major economies, which are still struggling to overcome the worst global slump since World War II. The IMF said on Oct. 6 that it expects global GDP to expand 4.2 percent in 2011.
The economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which include Saudi Arabia, will be helped as crude oil production climbs to 26 million barrels per day in 2011 from 25 million barrels per day in 2010, the IMF said.
For oil exporters in the region “economic activity is picking up considerably,” the report said.
The combined current account surplus of these countries will rise by about $80 billion on current oil price expectations, the IMF said. Of this, close to $50 billion is accounted for by GCC members.
Non-oil growth among crude exporters is likely to be “less robust,” according to the report, picking up only by an estimated 1 percentage point between 2009 and 2011.
Sluggish Credit
“In most countries, non-oil sector growth continues to rely on supportive fiscal policy with private financing and credit still sluggish,” the lender said.
The economies of oil importers in the Middle East, North Africa, along with Afghanistan and Pakistan, are expected to grow 5 percent in 2010, compared with 4.6 percent in the previous year, according to the report. For 2011, growth is projected to ease to 4.4 percent.
The report recommended that oil importers in the region focus on reaching economic growth levels to create enough jobs, and diversify their exports to include markets in South America and Asia, instead of mainly relying on Europe.
By Alaa Shahine - Oct 24, 2010 12:00 AM CT
Growth in Middle Eastern and North African oil-exporting economies will accelerate next year as crude production rises, the International Monetary Fund said.
Gross domestic product in those countries will expand 5 percent in 2011 after growing 3.8 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2009, the Washington-based lender said in its regional Economic Outlook released today in Dubai.
Those forecasts put oil exporters on course to grow faster than most of the world’s major economies, which are still struggling to overcome the worst global slump since World War II. The IMF said on Oct. 6 that it expects global GDP to expand 4.2 percent in 2011.
The economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which include Saudi Arabia, will be helped as crude oil production climbs to 26 million barrels per day in 2011 from 25 million barrels per day in 2010, the IMF said.
For oil exporters in the region “economic activity is picking up considerably,” the report said.
The combined current account surplus of these countries will rise by about $80 billion on current oil price expectations, the IMF said. Of this, close to $50 billion is accounted for by GCC members.
Non-oil growth among crude exporters is likely to be “less robust,” according to the report, picking up only by an estimated 1 percentage point between 2009 and 2011.
Sluggish Credit
“In most countries, non-oil sector growth continues to rely on supportive fiscal policy with private financing and credit still sluggish,” the lender said.
The economies of oil importers in the Middle East, North Africa, along with Afghanistan and Pakistan, are expected to grow 5 percent in 2010, compared with 4.6 percent in the previous year, according to the report. For 2011, growth is projected to ease to 4.4 percent.
The report recommended that oil importers in the region focus on reaching economic growth levels to create enough jobs, and diversify their exports to include markets in South America and Asia, instead of mainly relying on Europe.