France falls out of debt crisis as an anchor of stability
Gerhard Bläske (Paris) 18.7.2011
Unresolved debt problems, rising unemployment: France can not help the euro-zone.
With only ten months, then allowed the French to elect a new president - and then again if the Nicolas Sarkozy said, is more than uncertain. In polls, the President is clearly behind socialist potential opposition candidates, even the Rechtsextremistin Marine Le Pen could leave him in the first round behind him.
Above all, the economic situation puts pressure on Sarkozy, the Gallic rooster is presented in this severely plucked days. France is economically worse off today than at the beginning of Sarkozy's tenure 2007th A few days were surprisingly bad numbers released from the labor market. Unlike in Germany, where the labor market is booming , the number of unemployed in France in May rose by 0.7 percentage points to 2.7 million, which corresponds roughly to the level of the previous year. Including the job-seekers with one that employs a few hours per week, resulting in an increase by one point to a record high of 4.1 million. Of particular concern is that high anyway, with 20 percent youth unemployment, but also the number of long-term unemployed back massively increases.
Excessively high wages for low productivity
Other indicators are deteriorating. That the French economy is expected to grow despite all the problems in 2011 to around 2.1 percent, mainly on more regular consumption. At the same controls, however, France in 2011 to a record deficit in foreign trade. Within the past twelve months, the deficit was 61 billion euros, while Germany scored in the same period a surplus of 155 billion euros. Mainly industrial goods and vehicles from France are currently abroad rarely asked.
The employer-Economic Institute COE Rexecode According to the country has made further market share in foreign trade. Partly responsible for this: The wages in recent years compared to productivity rose sharply, and there are too few innovative products. In addition, the introduced several years ago working time reduction has insidiously undermined with full wage compensation, the country's competitiveness. But instead of addressing and staunchly opposed by some - as demanded by liberal forces - let the length of the working of the social partners to negotiate, Paris thinks prefer to protectionist measures to protect its economy.
Also the restoration of the budget is hardly advanced. Push the target, the budget deficit this year of 7.0 to 5.7 percent in 2013 to 3.0 percent, is almost impossible to achieve. Because instead of subsidies and tax reforms and vigorously restrict niches in the pension and welfare system initiated, the government cuts only on a modest scale. Additional spending on farmers (due to drought), the use of expensive Libya and a 460-million-euro penalty for bribery payments in the sale of frigates to Taiwan burden the budget. The statistics office Insee last revised figures for the national debt up to 82.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). By 2012, the debt will even increase to 86.9 percent of GDP - if the government meets its targets, which in the past was never the case.
And like a sword of Damocles hangs a possibly needed relief for local banks to the government: the rating agency Moody's recently has threatened several banks with a downgrade of its rating. The French banks are strong in the crisis countries Greece and Portugal, but also active in Italy, which has developed since last week to a new focus of the financial crisis.
Budget discipline is lacking
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned in its latest Economic Outlook, because "further efforts" to fiscal consolidation: Expenses must achieve higher efficiency and reduction in the public sector, the costs of expensive health reduced by reforms that broadened the tax base and the environmental and property taxes are increased.
But now that Paris can be counted in the election exercise fiscal discipline, few experts believe. Occurred in the modernizers as Sarkozy is - apart from a modest pension reform and not filling any vacant second place in the bloated central administration - largely failed.
But instead of reforming, Sarkozy, is also still rather expensive election promises. Particularly bizarre: If companies increase their dividend to shareholders, they must in future pay a premium to the staff. To a 35-billion-euro program is for "future investment" - financed by new debt.
This much is certain: as an anchor of stability for the euro-zone is from France for the time being.
Gerhard Bläske (Paris) 18.7.2011
Unresolved debt problems, rising unemployment: France can not help the euro-zone.
With only ten months, then allowed the French to elect a new president - and then again if the Nicolas Sarkozy said, is more than uncertain. In polls, the President is clearly behind socialist potential opposition candidates, even the Rechtsextremistin Marine Le Pen could leave him in the first round behind him.
Above all, the economic situation puts pressure on Sarkozy, the Gallic rooster is presented in this severely plucked days. France is economically worse off today than at the beginning of Sarkozy's tenure 2007th A few days were surprisingly bad numbers released from the labor market. Unlike in Germany, where the labor market is booming , the number of unemployed in France in May rose by 0.7 percentage points to 2.7 million, which corresponds roughly to the level of the previous year. Including the job-seekers with one that employs a few hours per week, resulting in an increase by one point to a record high of 4.1 million. Of particular concern is that high anyway, with 20 percent youth unemployment, but also the number of long-term unemployed back massively increases.
Excessively high wages for low productivity
Other indicators are deteriorating. That the French economy is expected to grow despite all the problems in 2011 to around 2.1 percent, mainly on more regular consumption. At the same controls, however, France in 2011 to a record deficit in foreign trade. Within the past twelve months, the deficit was 61 billion euros, while Germany scored in the same period a surplus of 155 billion euros. Mainly industrial goods and vehicles from France are currently abroad rarely asked.
The employer-Economic Institute COE Rexecode According to the country has made further market share in foreign trade. Partly responsible for this: The wages in recent years compared to productivity rose sharply, and there are too few innovative products. In addition, the introduced several years ago working time reduction has insidiously undermined with full wage compensation, the country's competitiveness. But instead of addressing and staunchly opposed by some - as demanded by liberal forces - let the length of the working of the social partners to negotiate, Paris thinks prefer to protectionist measures to protect its economy.
Also the restoration of the budget is hardly advanced. Push the target, the budget deficit this year of 7.0 to 5.7 percent in 2013 to 3.0 percent, is almost impossible to achieve. Because instead of subsidies and tax reforms and vigorously restrict niches in the pension and welfare system initiated, the government cuts only on a modest scale. Additional spending on farmers (due to drought), the use of expensive Libya and a 460-million-euro penalty for bribery payments in the sale of frigates to Taiwan burden the budget. The statistics office Insee last revised figures for the national debt up to 82.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). By 2012, the debt will even increase to 86.9 percent of GDP - if the government meets its targets, which in the past was never the case.
And like a sword of Damocles hangs a possibly needed relief for local banks to the government: the rating agency Moody's recently has threatened several banks with a downgrade of its rating. The French banks are strong in the crisis countries Greece and Portugal, but also active in Italy, which has developed since last week to a new focus of the financial crisis.
Budget discipline is lacking
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned in its latest Economic Outlook, because "further efforts" to fiscal consolidation: Expenses must achieve higher efficiency and reduction in the public sector, the costs of expensive health reduced by reforms that broadened the tax base and the environmental and property taxes are increased.
But now that Paris can be counted in the election exercise fiscal discipline, few experts believe. Occurred in the modernizers as Sarkozy is - apart from a modest pension reform and not filling any vacant second place in the bloated central administration - largely failed.
But instead of reforming, Sarkozy, is also still rather expensive election promises. Particularly bizarre: If companies increase their dividend to shareholders, they must in future pay a premium to the staff. To a 35-billion-euro program is for "future investment" - financed by new debt.
This much is certain: as an anchor of stability for the euro-zone is from France for the time being.