Commentary
Iraq's Stealthy Progress
Jamie M. Fly and Abe Greenwald 08.15.09, 2:00 PM ET
On June 30, U.S. troops completed their scheduled withdrawal from Iraq's cities, leaving matters of law and order in the hands of local authorities and the country's security forces.
Since that day, headlines about Sarah Palin, Michael Jackson, Henry Louis Gates and health care town-hall protests have vied for the nation's attention. The media has showed little interest in covering the year's most extraordinary story: Americans successfully handed over security duties for Iraq's cities--and Iraqis are ably managing their affairs.
The few stories on Iraq that have appeared since June have focused on Iraq's increasing sovereignty only because it might hasten America's complete withdrawal. If observers continue to ignore the determination and flexibility that brought us to this auspicious moment, our eagerness for a total draw-down could prove disastrous.
The handover was made possible by the success of the surge announced by President Bush in January 2007 and the successful counterinsurgency strategy developed and implemented by U.S. forces, led by Gen. David Petraeus.
Originally a surge skeptic, President Barack Obama demonstrated bravery and leadership in revising the drawdown schedule he had touted during his campaign so as not to risk the dangers of a premature exit. He must now stick to this new schedule even as his administration weighs sending additional troops to Afghanistan, resisting the temptation to shift resources from one theater to the next too quickly.
While the rise in terrorist attacks that began in the run-up to the U.S. pullback has not yet abated, both American and Iraqi military commanders long ago anticipated this flare-up. Their preparation is paying off. There has been a predictable spate of bombings in Baghdad and northern Iraq, but even with this spike the number of coalition and Iraqi deaths, the toll does not approach levels from previous years.
There are also encouraging signs of the Iraqis' confidence in their country's security forces. Security for a recent Shiite pilgrimage to the Imam Moussa al-Kadhim shrine in Baghdad was an all-Iraqi affair. Hundreds of thousands of pilgrims attended what has been in past years a terrorist free-for-all. "In previous years there has been a great deal of violence which prevented us from visiting the shrine," one pilgrim told Agence France-Presse. "But this year the security situation has improved; there haven't been any incidents, so I've been able to come for the first time with my friends."
Perhaps most heartening of all, the latest rash of bombings in Shiite communities, while deadly, has failed to provoke the wave of retribution terrorists hoped for. Instead of handing the perpetrators a victory by allowing sectarian reprisals to fuel a civil war, Shiite leaders are preaching--and getting--restraint in the interest of Iraqi statehood.
If the gains in security and responsible sovereignty continue to accrue, Iraq will have far surpassed anyone's hopes for what a long-tyrannized dictatorship in the heart of the greater Middle East could become. The Iraqi people now have a chance at a productive future; a region clamoring for consensual governance can now turn to a local model of parliamentary democracy.
Just as important, the U.S. has proved it takes more than a supposedly foregone quagmire to break its will.
When al Qaeda in Iraq and Iranian-backed militias were on the verge of turning the country into a wasteland, the U.S. changed strategies but held its ground. Perhaps no other event in modern American history has gone from being so disastrously off-track to being a success.
Consider the reversals earned by perseverance:
In April 2004, during the siege on the insurgent haven Fallujah, some 40% of the Iraqi security forces didn't show up for the fight or--even worse--joined the other side; in April 2008, when Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki ordered the siege on Basra, the Iraqi security forces led the fight against the Mahdi Army.
In the 2006 elections for the coalition government, fanatical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr was a kingmaker who had to be ameliorated by secularists. In the 2009 provincial elections, the overwhelming support for Maliki's State of the Law coalition and Ayad Allawi's Iraqi List left the Sadrists in the political woods.
Despite this progress, several challenges remain. Reports that Iraq is placing new restrictions on U.S. forces that limit their ability to combat Shiite extremists backed by Iran are troubling. The Obama administration will need to manage the new relationship with an increasingly assertive Iraqi government and also deal with a major unresolved question--whether the Status of Forces Agreement will need to be re-negotiated to allow U.S. forces in the country beyond 2011.
While Maliki has adopted a defiant posture in order to instill confidence among Iraqis, he recently acknowledged that circumstances may necessitate an extension of the U.S. military presence in Iraq past the agreed-upon date. "If Iraqi forces required further training and further support," Maliki said, "we shall examine this at that time based on the needs of Iraq."
The key to overcoming these challenges will be U.S. resolve. Vice President Joe Biden's comments in early July during a visit to Baghdad--that if the situation deteriorated, the U.S. wouldn't intervene--were unfortunate and stand in stark contrast to the administration's measured approach until now.
In January, Iraq will hold national elections. U.S. forces, even in their newly limited roles, must do everything possible to bolster the country's security in advance of election day. This means U.S. officials need to work to resolve the growing disputes over the oil-rich Kirkuk region in the north as well as urge the Maliki government to temper its newfound confidence with pragmatism.
Above all, it means Obama should continue to be flexible and let the recommendations of his commanders on the ground guide his choices. For all the hurdles the administration faces domestically and around the world, Iraq remains a U.S. achievement that must be maintained.
Jamie M. Fly served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and on the National Security Council staff from 2005 to 2009. He is currently executive director of the Foreign Policy Initiative. Abe Greenwald is a policy adviser and online editor at the Foreign Policy Initiative.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/15/tro...-iraq-war.html
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Iraq's Stealthy Progress
Jamie M. Fly and Abe Greenwald 08.15.09, 2:00 PM ET
On June 30, U.S. troops completed their scheduled withdrawal from Iraq's cities, leaving matters of law and order in the hands of local authorities and the country's security forces.
Since that day, headlines about Sarah Palin, Michael Jackson, Henry Louis Gates and health care town-hall protests have vied for the nation's attention. The media has showed little interest in covering the year's most extraordinary story: Americans successfully handed over security duties for Iraq's cities--and Iraqis are ably managing their affairs.
The few stories on Iraq that have appeared since June have focused on Iraq's increasing sovereignty only because it might hasten America's complete withdrawal. If observers continue to ignore the determination and flexibility that brought us to this auspicious moment, our eagerness for a total draw-down could prove disastrous.
The handover was made possible by the success of the surge announced by President Bush in January 2007 and the successful counterinsurgency strategy developed and implemented by U.S. forces, led by Gen. David Petraeus.
Originally a surge skeptic, President Barack Obama demonstrated bravery and leadership in revising the drawdown schedule he had touted during his campaign so as not to risk the dangers of a premature exit. He must now stick to this new schedule even as his administration weighs sending additional troops to Afghanistan, resisting the temptation to shift resources from one theater to the next too quickly.
While the rise in terrorist attacks that began in the run-up to the U.S. pullback has not yet abated, both American and Iraqi military commanders long ago anticipated this flare-up. Their preparation is paying off. There has been a predictable spate of bombings in Baghdad and northern Iraq, but even with this spike the number of coalition and Iraqi deaths, the toll does not approach levels from previous years.
There are also encouraging signs of the Iraqis' confidence in their country's security forces. Security for a recent Shiite pilgrimage to the Imam Moussa al-Kadhim shrine in Baghdad was an all-Iraqi affair. Hundreds of thousands of pilgrims attended what has been in past years a terrorist free-for-all. "In previous years there has been a great deal of violence which prevented us from visiting the shrine," one pilgrim told Agence France-Presse. "But this year the security situation has improved; there haven't been any incidents, so I've been able to come for the first time with my friends."
Perhaps most heartening of all, the latest rash of bombings in Shiite communities, while deadly, has failed to provoke the wave of retribution terrorists hoped for. Instead of handing the perpetrators a victory by allowing sectarian reprisals to fuel a civil war, Shiite leaders are preaching--and getting--restraint in the interest of Iraqi statehood.
If the gains in security and responsible sovereignty continue to accrue, Iraq will have far surpassed anyone's hopes for what a long-tyrannized dictatorship in the heart of the greater Middle East could become. The Iraqi people now have a chance at a productive future; a region clamoring for consensual governance can now turn to a local model of parliamentary democracy.
Just as important, the U.S. has proved it takes more than a supposedly foregone quagmire to break its will.
When al Qaeda in Iraq and Iranian-backed militias were on the verge of turning the country into a wasteland, the U.S. changed strategies but held its ground. Perhaps no other event in modern American history has gone from being so disastrously off-track to being a success.
Consider the reversals earned by perseverance:
In April 2004, during the siege on the insurgent haven Fallujah, some 40% of the Iraqi security forces didn't show up for the fight or--even worse--joined the other side; in April 2008, when Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki ordered the siege on Basra, the Iraqi security forces led the fight against the Mahdi Army.
In the 2006 elections for the coalition government, fanatical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr was a kingmaker who had to be ameliorated by secularists. In the 2009 provincial elections, the overwhelming support for Maliki's State of the Law coalition and Ayad Allawi's Iraqi List left the Sadrists in the political woods.
Despite this progress, several challenges remain. Reports that Iraq is placing new restrictions on U.S. forces that limit their ability to combat Shiite extremists backed by Iran are troubling. The Obama administration will need to manage the new relationship with an increasingly assertive Iraqi government and also deal with a major unresolved question--whether the Status of Forces Agreement will need to be re-negotiated to allow U.S. forces in the country beyond 2011.
While Maliki has adopted a defiant posture in order to instill confidence among Iraqis, he recently acknowledged that circumstances may necessitate an extension of the U.S. military presence in Iraq past the agreed-upon date. "If Iraqi forces required further training and further support," Maliki said, "we shall examine this at that time based on the needs of Iraq."
The key to overcoming these challenges will be U.S. resolve. Vice President Joe Biden's comments in early July during a visit to Baghdad--that if the situation deteriorated, the U.S. wouldn't intervene--were unfortunate and stand in stark contrast to the administration's measured approach until now.
In January, Iraq will hold national elections. U.S. forces, even in their newly limited roles, must do everything possible to bolster the country's security in advance of election day. This means U.S. officials need to work to resolve the growing disputes over the oil-rich Kirkuk region in the north as well as urge the Maliki government to temper its newfound confidence with pragmatism.
Above all, it means Obama should continue to be flexible and let the recommendations of his commanders on the ground guide his choices. For all the hurdles the administration faces domestically and around the world, Iraq remains a U.S. achievement that must be maintained.
Jamie M. Fly served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and on the National Security Council staff from 2005 to 2009. He is currently executive director of the Foreign Policy Initiative. Abe Greenwald is a policy adviser and online editor at the Foreign Policy Initiative.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/15/tro...-iraq-war.html
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