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Iraq Business Forecast Report Q1 2010 (Business Monitor International)
* Market: General
* Published Date: 25/11/2009
* Report Title: Iraq Business Forecast Report Q1 2010
* View Report Summary: View Report Summary
* Report Type: Country Report
* Country: Iraq
* Number of Pages: 51
Executive Summary........................................... .................................................. .............................. 7 The Oil Sector’s Revival Begins Chapter 1: Political Outlook........................................... .................................................. ... 9 SWOT Analysis.......................................... .................................................. .................................................. ........9 BMI Political Risk Ratings........................................... .................................................. .................................. 10 Domestic Politics.......................................... .................................................. .................................11 Parliamentary Elections: Maliki On The Way Out? The massive bombings in Baghdad on October 25 highlight the fact that the security gains of recent years remain fragile, and could dent support for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in the run-up to January 2010’s parliamentary elections. TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW.......................................... .................................................. .............................. 12 Chapter 2: Economic Outlook........................................... ................................................ 15 SWOT Analysis.......................................... .................................................. .................................................. ..... 15 BMI Economic Risk Ratings........................................... .................................................. ............................... 16 Economic Activity.......................................... .................................................. ................................17 Oil Deals Positive For Growth Real GDP will grow by an average 5.6% annually over the next five years, on the back of steadily increasing oil output as foreign oil majors move in. TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.......................................... .................................................. .................................17 Fiscal Policy............................................ .................................................. .......................................20 Fiscal Position Looking Healthier On the back of our upwardly revised oil price forecasts, we now see the Iraqi government turning out much smaller fiscal deficits over the next three years. TABLE: EXCHANGE RATE.............................................. .................................................. .................................. 22 Exchange Rate Policy............................................ .................................................. .........................22 Dinar’s Dollar Peg To Hold We expect the central bank to hold the dinar steady at around IQD1,170/US$ over the next five years. Investment Climate .................................................. .................................................. .....................24 FDI Should Increase, But Many Obstacles Remain The improvements in the security situation mean that the frontier market of Iraq has now become a viable investment destination. Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast.......................................... .................................................. . 27 The Iraqi Economy To 2019.............................................. .................................................. ..............27 Greater Political Stability And Solid Growth We expect that Iraq will become an increasingly stable polity, setting the foundation for average real GDP growth of 5.3% between 2010 and 2019. TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts .................................................. ....................................27 Chapter 4: Special Report............................................ .................................................. ... 31 The World’s Fiscal Conundrum......................................... .................................................. .............31 Bleeding Red Ink Across The Globe Table: WORLD GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE INDICATORS........................................ .................................. 32 Table: WORLD GOVERNMENT REVENUE INDICATORS........................................ .......................................... 33 Table: WORLD FISCAL BALANCE INDICATORS........................................ .................................................. .... 34 Chapter 5: Business Environment....................................... ............................................. 37 SWOT Analysis.......................................... .................................................. .................................................. ......37 BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings........................................... .................................................. ........... 38 Business Environment Outlook........................................... .................................................. ..........39 TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATIONAL RISK RATINGS........................................... ................................ 39 Institutions .................................................. .................................................. ..................................40 TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGS........................................... .................................................. ....... 41 Infrastructure .................................................. .................................................. ..............................43 TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY........................................... .................................................. ........................ 44 Market Orientation .................................................. .................................................. ......................44 table: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA, ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS........................................... .................................... 45 TABLE: BMI TRADE RATINGS........................................... .................................................. .............................. 46 TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS...................................... .................................................. .........................47 Operational Risk .................................................. .................................................. ..........................48 Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions....................................... ......................................... 49 Global Outlook........................................... .................................................. ....................................49 Emerging Markets Drive Global Recovery TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH............................................ ............................................. 49 TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS....................................... .................................................. .............................. 50 Emerging Markets TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKET EXCHANGE RATES............................................. .............................................. 51 TABLE: EMERGING MARKET EXCHANGE RATES............................................. ................................................ 51
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http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/t...10-195614.aspx
£250.00Select Pricing [?] £250.00 - ElectronicAlerts Enquire About Report
Send to a Colleague
Change Currency Euro USD GBP
Iraq Business Forecast Report Q1 2010 (Business Monitor International)
* Market: General
* Published Date: 25/11/2009
* Report Title: Iraq Business Forecast Report Q1 2010
* View Report Summary: View Report Summary
* Report Type: Country Report
* Country: Iraq
* Number of Pages: 51
Executive Summary........................................... .................................................. .............................. 7 The Oil Sector’s Revival Begins Chapter 1: Political Outlook........................................... .................................................. ... 9 SWOT Analysis.......................................... .................................................. .................................................. ........9 BMI Political Risk Ratings........................................... .................................................. .................................. 10 Domestic Politics.......................................... .................................................. .................................11 Parliamentary Elections: Maliki On The Way Out? The massive bombings in Baghdad on October 25 highlight the fact that the security gains of recent years remain fragile, and could dent support for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in the run-up to January 2010’s parliamentary elections. TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW.......................................... .................................................. .............................. 12 Chapter 2: Economic Outlook........................................... ................................................ 15 SWOT Analysis.......................................... .................................................. .................................................. ..... 15 BMI Economic Risk Ratings........................................... .................................................. ............................... 16 Economic Activity.......................................... .................................................. ................................17 Oil Deals Positive For Growth Real GDP will grow by an average 5.6% annually over the next five years, on the back of steadily increasing oil output as foreign oil majors move in. TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.......................................... .................................................. .................................17 Fiscal Policy............................................ .................................................. .......................................20 Fiscal Position Looking Healthier On the back of our upwardly revised oil price forecasts, we now see the Iraqi government turning out much smaller fiscal deficits over the next three years. TABLE: EXCHANGE RATE.............................................. .................................................. .................................. 22 Exchange Rate Policy............................................ .................................................. .........................22 Dinar’s Dollar Peg To Hold We expect the central bank to hold the dinar steady at around IQD1,170/US$ over the next five years. Investment Climate .................................................. .................................................. .....................24 FDI Should Increase, But Many Obstacles Remain The improvements in the security situation mean that the frontier market of Iraq has now become a viable investment destination. Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast.......................................... .................................................. . 27 The Iraqi Economy To 2019.............................................. .................................................. ..............27 Greater Political Stability And Solid Growth We expect that Iraq will become an increasingly stable polity, setting the foundation for average real GDP growth of 5.3% between 2010 and 2019. TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts .................................................. ....................................27 Chapter 4: Special Report............................................ .................................................. ... 31 The World’s Fiscal Conundrum......................................... .................................................. .............31 Bleeding Red Ink Across The Globe Table: WORLD GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE INDICATORS........................................ .................................. 32 Table: WORLD GOVERNMENT REVENUE INDICATORS........................................ .......................................... 33 Table: WORLD FISCAL BALANCE INDICATORS........................................ .................................................. .... 34 Chapter 5: Business Environment....................................... ............................................. 37 SWOT Analysis.......................................... .................................................. .................................................. ......37 BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings........................................... .................................................. ........... 38 Business Environment Outlook........................................... .................................................. ..........39 TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATIONAL RISK RATINGS........................................... ................................ 39 Institutions .................................................. .................................................. ..................................40 TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGS........................................... .................................................. ....... 41 Infrastructure .................................................. .................................................. ..............................43 TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY........................................... .................................................. ........................ 44 Market Orientation .................................................. .................................................. ......................44 table: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA, ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS........................................... .................................... 45 TABLE: BMI TRADE RATINGS........................................... .................................................. .............................. 46 TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS...................................... .................................................. .........................47 Operational Risk .................................................. .................................................. ..........................48 Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions....................................... ......................................... 49 Global Outlook........................................... .................................................. ....................................49 Emerging Markets Drive Global Recovery TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH............................................ ............................................. 49 TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS....................................... .................................................. .............................. 50 Emerging Markets TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKET EXCHANGE RATES............................................. .............................................. 51 TABLE: EMERGING MARKET EXCHANGE RATES............................................. ................................................ 51
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