At the eve of the parliament’s first session .. The possible Iraqi scenarios
At a time when it was announced that the new Iraqi parliament to hold its first ses¬sion next Mon¬day, Iraqi sources pre¬dicted that the U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will arrive to Baghdad within the next two days, to discuss the U.S. Administration views of the prepa¬ra¬tion for the withdrawal of the U.S. forces from Iraq (there are also rumors say that Shiite coalitions will try to maneuver around Talabani’s decision and announce the first parliament ses¬sion as “an open session for at least 40 days”).
In the meantime, Iyad Allawi launched an attack on the Iraqi government for the first time using the word “Iraqi regime”, a term that now reflect the extent of the intersection with the Prime Minister Maliki. In a press conference preceded his meeting with Al-Iraqiya, Allawi ignored his previous “wish to meet Maliki” argument, and he repeatedly said that the “Iraqi regime” did everything in its power to undermine Al-Iraqiya win.
The interesting in Allawi’s statement is that, he failed to address the issues relating to alliances between Al-Iraqiya and other coalitions. Also made no mention to the new statement of the President of the Kurdistan region Massoud Barzani, who renewed the right of Al-Iraqiya to form a government (announcing this after he returned from his visit to Turkey).
The government formation scenarios:
- Al-Iraqiya List to form an alliance with the Kurds and the Supreme Council to form a government.
This is the most expected scenario because the interests of the Kurds require Al-Iraqiya List, especially if the Kurds want to implement Arti¬cle 140 of the Constitution, which concerns the disputed areas, they need Al-Iraqiya support in Mosul and Kirkuk.
- The formation of the government by the “State of Law” and the “Iraqi National Alliance” and the Kurdish Alliance.
The country will face the same fate as that experienced during the past seven years, a government of a sectarian nature based on the marginalization of an essential component of Iraqi society (Sunnis).
- The formation of a national unity government national includes all the political coalitions (the Lebanese scenario).
This is the most preferred scenario by the U.S. administration, a dysfunctional government which serves the U.S. interests. A weak government, functions on the basis of consensus and representation and sectarian and factional groups, which means the increase of the financial and administrative corruption and empty promises (also preferred by the small political blocs) .
- The two governments scenario (executive government and control government).
Not expected, but in one way or another, the Sadrists want something close to this scenario. A shadow government, with the mechanism to function as a control and evaluation government.
Is this the end of Maliki? We will see this next time
http://www.roadstoiraq.com/2010/06/08/at-the-eve-of-the-parliaments-first-session-the-possible-iraqi-scenarios/
At a time when it was announced that the new Iraqi parliament to hold its first ses¬sion next Mon¬day, Iraqi sources pre¬dicted that the U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will arrive to Baghdad within the next two days, to discuss the U.S. Administration views of the prepa¬ra¬tion for the withdrawal of the U.S. forces from Iraq (there are also rumors say that Shiite coalitions will try to maneuver around Talabani’s decision and announce the first parliament ses¬sion as “an open session for at least 40 days”).
In the meantime, Iyad Allawi launched an attack on the Iraqi government for the first time using the word “Iraqi regime”, a term that now reflect the extent of the intersection with the Prime Minister Maliki. In a press conference preceded his meeting with Al-Iraqiya, Allawi ignored his previous “wish to meet Maliki” argument, and he repeatedly said that the “Iraqi regime” did everything in its power to undermine Al-Iraqiya win.
The interesting in Allawi’s statement is that, he failed to address the issues relating to alliances between Al-Iraqiya and other coalitions. Also made no mention to the new statement of the President of the Kurdistan region Massoud Barzani, who renewed the right of Al-Iraqiya to form a government (announcing this after he returned from his visit to Turkey).
The government formation scenarios:
- Al-Iraqiya List to form an alliance with the Kurds and the Supreme Council to form a government.
This is the most expected scenario because the interests of the Kurds require Al-Iraqiya List, especially if the Kurds want to implement Arti¬cle 140 of the Constitution, which concerns the disputed areas, they need Al-Iraqiya support in Mosul and Kirkuk.
- The formation of the government by the “State of Law” and the “Iraqi National Alliance” and the Kurdish Alliance.
The country will face the same fate as that experienced during the past seven years, a government of a sectarian nature based on the marginalization of an essential component of Iraqi society (Sunnis).
- The formation of a national unity government national includes all the political coalitions (the Lebanese scenario).
This is the most preferred scenario by the U.S. administration, a dysfunctional government which serves the U.S. interests. A weak government, functions on the basis of consensus and representation and sectarian and factional groups, which means the increase of the financial and administrative corruption and empty promises (also preferred by the small political blocs) .
- The two governments scenario (executive government and control government).
Not expected, but in one way or another, the Sadrists want something close to this scenario. A shadow government, with the mechanism to function as a control and evaluation government.
Is this the end of Maliki? We will see this next time
http://www.roadstoiraq.com/2010/06/08/at-the-eve-of-the-parliaments-first-session-the-possible-iraqi-scenarios/